Matchup Status (Week 14)
Games Completed (1)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 17.3 | 13.8 | 18.0 | -0.7 |
Games Pending (15)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 15.3 | 18.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 16.4 | 18.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 18.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.1 | 17.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | 6.1 | 4.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.6 | 16.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 12.1 | 10.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Opponent: Meat Pistols
Opponent Games Completed (1)
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 24.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | +15.1 |
Opponent Games Pending (15)
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.8 | 11.9 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | 7.9 | --- |
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | 14.7 | --- |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 3.7 | --- |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Executive Summary
Week 14 features Jameson Williams already banking 17.3 points from Thursday, giving us a 6.7-point lead on Meat Pistols. Our Sunday slate is anchored by consensus WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Atlanta, though heavy rain and 27mph gusts may cap ceiling. Bucky Irving faces a Saints run defense allowing the 5th-most rushing yards, making him our highest-upside RB. Omarion Hampton returns from a 7-week IR stint Monday vs PHI, but a split role with Vidal and 55% XGBoost bust probability make him a risky bench stash rather than starter.
Key Insights
- Jameson Williams (17.3 actual) - Thursday boom secured
- JSN WR1 consensus (ECR #1) but weather risk: 27mph gusts, 90% rain chance in Seattle
- Bucky Irving full practice, 81 yds + TD Week 13 return, Saints allow 5th most rush yards
- Jordan Love benched for Brissett due to severe Chicago weather (27F, -15 wind chill, snow)
- Omarion Hampton IR return Monday: UPGRADED to FULL practice Friday, no non-contact jersey, blue jersey. Jalen Carter (PHI DL) OUT - matchup upgrade. Still 55% XGBoost bust but outlook improved.
- Hunter Henry and Tetairoa McMillan on bye (NE, CAR)
- Marvin Harrison Jr. remains OUT (IR - appendicitis surgery Nov 10)
- HAMPTON FOCUS: UPGRADED Friday - full practice, regular jersey, red-zone walkthrough. Jalen Carter (PHI DL) OUT is matchup boost. Still first game back from 7-week ankle fracture, split with Vidal expected. XGB: 55% bust, 14% boom. Raised projection to 10.0 (was 8.0). Still BENCH recommendation but Monday Night Football allows late swap if Sunday lineup underperforms.
- OPPONENT INJURY: Dalton Kincaid (TE) QUESTIONABLE - hamstring + knee, limited all week, hasn't played since Week 10, wearing knee brace. Status uncertain for Sunday vs Bengals.
Recommended Starting Lineup
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 15.3 | 18.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | NO | 16.4 | 18.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 8.6 | 9.5 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 17.5 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DAL | 16.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Lineup Decisions
QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Brissett QB9 ECR vs Love QB14. Love has severe weather (27F, 21mph wind, snow). Brissett in dome-like SoFi, high game total (47.5).
FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Omarion Hampton - J.Williams already scored 17.3 Thursday. Hampton IR return with 55% bust probability, split role, tough PHI defense.
XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 44.8% | 34.9% | 20.3% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | --- | 0.0 | OUT | 36.7% | 43.8% | 19.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 17.5 | MODERATE | 31.1% | 37.5% | 31.4% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 16.5 | MODERATE | 29.7% | 48.6% | 21.6% |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 23.7% | 47.6% | 28.6% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 18.0 | BOOM | 22.6% | 45.2% | 32.3% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 9.5 | MODERATE | 16.3% | 47.1% | 36.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 13.7% | 31.1% | 55.2% |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 6.1 | 4.0 | BUST | 13.3% | 37.0% | 49.7% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 12.7% | 30.0% | 57.4% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 11.0% | 65.9% | 23.1% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 16.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 10.7% | 38.1% | 51.2% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | 10.4% | 36.0% | 53.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 9.6% | 34.0% | 56.4% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 18.0 | BOOM | 9.0% | 37.1% | 53.9% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 0.0 | BYE | 7.9% | 31.8% | 60.3% |
Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (8th vs QB - tough). GB -6.5 (44.5 total). SEVERE WEATHER: 27F, 21mph wind, snow showers, -15F wind chill. Cold favors run game. Adjusting to 16.5 (lower MODERATE) for weather risk. Within MODERATE [9.1-24.1].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: XGB: 22% boom, 35% bust. vs LAR (10th vs QB). High game total (47.0). MC shows 70% BOOM mode! ARI +8 underdog = passing volume. LLM AGREES with MC BOOM selection despite XGB moderate signal. 18.0 in BOOM range [16.5-27.5].
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 10 | ECR: 8
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)
Bucky Irving (TB vs NO)
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 61% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 54% bust. OVERRIDE XGB: Saints allow 5th most rush yds, gashed by Achane 186. Irving 81 yds + TD Week 13 return, full practice Thursday. TB -8.5 = positive game script. Selecting BOOM mode. 18.0 within range [16.3, 31.3].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 19% boom, 34% bust. vs CLE (8th vs RB - TOUGH). Low game total (33.5) = limited scoring. TEN +4.5 underdog = negative game script risk. MC MODERATE [5.3-13.3]. MODERATE 9.5 accounts for committee split with Pollard. Ceiling capped.
Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 9
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST [0-8], 40% MOD [5-17], 31% BOOM [15-30]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. UPGRADED: Full practice Friday (was limited), no non-contact jersey, blue jersey, red-zone walkthrough. Jalen Carter (PHI DL) OUT - matchup upgrade. Still first game back from 7-week ankle fracture. Split role with Vidal expected. Raising to 10.0 (mid-MODERATE) given practice upgrade. Injury risk remains but outlook improved.
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 25
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 34% BUST, 43% MOD, 22% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 23% bust. WR1 consensus (ECR #1). @ATL (15th vs WR). SEA -7 = positive script. WEATHER: 54F, 27mph gusts, heavy rain (90%). Wind/rain affect deep passing but short/intermediate routes fine. Props at 94 rec yds. Adjusting to 18.0 for weather. Within MODERATE [12.6-24.6].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 1
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs BYE)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: Panthers bye Week 14. No projection.
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. On IR. No return timeline.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust - VOLATILE. vs HOU (14th vs WR). KC -4.5 favorite. MC shows 47% BOOM probability but XGB more conservative. Selecting MODERATE mode [10.6-21.4] due to HOU decent secondary. 17.5 balanced projection.
Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 14 | ECR: 3
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%
XGB (This Week): Boom 31% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)
Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 17.3 pts. Preserved pre-game projection (18.0 MODERATE).
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: XGB: 26% boom, 30% bust. @TB (18th vs TE). NO +8.5 underdog = passing volume for garbage time. MC BOOM mode at 36%! But selecting MODERATE [5.7-12.3] due to low team total (17.0 implied). 10.0 in MODERATE range.
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)
Hunter Henry (NE vs BYE)
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)
Reasoning: Patriots bye Week 14. No projection.
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (8th vs QB - tough). GB -6.5 (44.5 total). SEVERE WEATHER: 27F, 21mph wind, snow showers, -15F wind chill. Cold favors run game. Adjusting to 16.5 (lower MODERATE) for weather risk. Within MODERATE [9.1-24.1].
Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs BYE
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 56%
Notes: Panthers bye Week 14. No projection.
Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%
Notes: OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. On IR. No return timeline.
Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%
Notes: MC: 29% BUST [0-8], 40% MOD [5-17], 31% BOOM [15-30]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. UPGRADED: Full practice Friday (was limited), no non-contact jersey, blue jersey, red-zone walkthrough. Jalen Carter (PHI DL) OUT - matchup upgrade. Still first game back from 7-week ankle fracture. Split role with Vidal expected. Raising to 10.0 (mid-MODERATE) given practice upgrade. Injury risk remains but outlook improved.
Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%
Notes: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].
Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54%
Notes: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].
Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BYE
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60%
Notes: Patriots bye Week 14. No projection.
High Threat Players (>35% Boom)
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability
Opponent Starter Analysis
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 | MODERATE | 48% | 37% | 16% | HIGH | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 | MODERATE | 27% | 46% | 27% | MEDIUM | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 9.1 | 11.9 | MODERATE | 23% | 52% | 25% | MEDIUM | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 | MODERATE | 15% | 55% | 30% | LOW | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 13% | 36% | 51% | LOW | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 | BUST | 12% | 34% | 54% | LOW | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | MODERATE | 12% | 42% | 46% | LOW | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 | BUST | 11% | 27% | 62% | LOW | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 8.9 | 8.9 | BUST | 11% | 26% | 63% | LOW | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 | BUST | 10% | 34% | 57% | LOW |
Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)
Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)
Top Free Agents by Boom Potential
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 11.8 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.0 | 33% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 9.3 | 32% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 9.8 | 28% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 8.6 | 28% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.1 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.8 | 27% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 5.9 | 26% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.2 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 15.3 | 19% | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.6 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Evan McPherson | K | 8.2 | 17% | 53% | 0.0% |
QB Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15.3 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 19% | 50% | |
| Kyler Murray | 17.2 | BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.4 | BUST:39%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 49% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 13% | 41% |
RB Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11.8 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% | 42% | 20% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 33% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.8 | BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% | 27% | 26% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.2 | BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% | 21% | 37% | |
| Devin Neal | 8.7 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 47% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.0 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% | 14% | 49% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 9% | 58% |
WR Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.1 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.6 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.5 | BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% | 12% | 58% | |
| Tre Tucker | 9.9 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% | 9% | 42% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.6 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 0% | 0% |
TE Free Agents
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9.3 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% | 32% | 22% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8.6 | BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% | 28% | 26% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.2 | BUST:44%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:18% | 8% | 56% |
Streaming Options
K Streamers
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.0 | 33% | 42% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 9.8 | 28% | 31% | |
| Evan McPherson | 8.2 | 17% | 53% |
D/ST Streamers
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 5.9 | 26% | 31% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% |
Monte Carlo Projection Report
Matchup Summary
Win Probability
Margin Distribution (80% Range)
Floor: -9.7 pts | Median: +29.4 pts | Ceiling: +67.4 pts
Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | QUESTIONABLE | 12.2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 |
Opponent Lineup Scenarios
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 89.6 | 83.2% | +29.2 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 91.4 | 82.7% | +27.5 |
My Team
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 18.0 | 4.4-28.1 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% |  |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 18.0 | 4.3-24.3 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 12% |  |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.5 | 2.2-20.1 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 26% |  |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 5.7-30.3 | ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 6% |  |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 17.5 | 7.1-28.1 | ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% |  |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.3 | 4.1-25.7 | ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% |  |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-17.2 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% |  |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.0-17.4 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 43% |  |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 4.6-16.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 16.5 | 6.4-28.2 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% |  |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-24.0 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 23% |  |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 4.0 | 0.5-20.6 | ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 44% |  |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 5.0-26.1 | ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 10% |  |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% |  |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.5-25.9 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 15% |  |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.4-22.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% |  |
Opponent
Starters
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.2 | 10.0-31.4 | ↑15+: 69% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.6-15.8 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 42% |  |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.7 | 0.4-17.2 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% |  |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.8 | 4.2-23.0 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% |  |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.6-18.3 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.3 | 2.1-15.7 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% |  |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.7-18.4 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% |  |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-21.1 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 59% |  |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.4-16.6 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% |  |
Bench
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.5-26.8 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 17% |  |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.5-35.4 | ↑15+: 73% | ↓5-: 0% |  |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.1-20.9 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.2-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% |  |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.6-19.9 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 20% |  |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-16.0 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 46% |  |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% |  |
Scenario Details
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 18% @ 20.4 | 61% @ 8.9 | 20% @ 3.0 | 9.8 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
Waiver Wire Notes
No urgent waiver moves needed. If Hampton struggles Monday, consider Kimani Vidal if available. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) emerging as TE streamer with 27.5% XGBoost boom.
Injury Concerns
No major injury concerns.
ESPN Projection Accuracy
XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration
LLM vs ESPN Comparison
Data Quality & Discrepancies
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
Week 14 Discrepancy Log
No discrepancies detected this week.