Week 14 Fantasy Football Analysis

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Generated: 2025-12-05 19:16

Matchup Status (Week 14)

17.3 - 24.0 vs Meat Pistols

Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs LLM
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE ✓ 17.3 13.8 18.0 -0.7

Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 15.3 18.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 16.4 18.0
Tyjae Spears RB RB 8.6 9.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 18.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.1 17.5
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.7 10.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 10.0
Rams D/ST D/ST D/ST 6.8 8.0
Emanuel Wilson (bench) RB BE 6.1 4.0
Hunter Henry (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.6 16.5
Keenan Allen (bench) WR BE 10.5 8.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
Omarion Hampton (bench) RB BE 12.1 10.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 0.0 ---
17.3 Starter Actuals
109.0 Remaining Proj
126.3 Est. Total

Opponent: Meat Pistols

Opponent Games Completed (1)

PlayerPosSlotActualESPNLLMvs ESPN
Brandon Aubrey K K ✓ 24.0 8.9 8.9 +15.1

Opponent Games Pending (15)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Patrick Mahomes QB QB 17.9 20.1
Nick Chubb RB RB 5.3 7.5
Ollie Gordon II RB RB 3.2 7.8
Keon Coleman WR WR 6.7 9.2
Malik Washington WR WR 8.4 8.2
Dalton Kincaid TE TE 10.0 9.6
DJ Moore WR RB/WR/TE 12.8 11.9
Vikings D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3
Chris Boswell (bench) K BE 7.9 ---
Christian McCaffrey (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
J.J. McCarthy (bench) QB BE 14.7 ---
Packers D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 3.7 ---
Ray Davis (bench) RB BE 2.6 0.0
Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) RB BE 0.0 ---
Sam LaPorta (bench) TE BE 0.0 ---
24.0 Opp Actuals
80.6 Opp Remaining
104.6 Opp Est. Total
Projected Margin: +21.7 pts

Executive Summary

Week 14 features Jameson Williams already banking 17.3 points from Thursday, giving us a 6.7-point lead on Meat Pistols. Our Sunday slate is anchored by consensus WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba against Atlanta, though heavy rain and 27mph gusts may cap ceiling. Bucky Irving faces a Saints run defense allowing the 5th-most rushing yards, making him our highest-upside RB. Omarion Hampton returns from a 7-week IR stint Monday vs PHI, but a split role with Vidal and 55% XGBoost bust probability make him a risky bench stash rather than starter.

Key Insights

Recommended Starting Lineup

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QBJacoby BrissettLAR15.318.0BOOMMEDIUM
RBBucky IrvingNO16.418.0BOOMHIGH
RBTyjae SpearsCLE8.69.5MODERATELOW
WRJaxon Smith-NjigbaATL20.918.0MODERATEHIGH
WRRashee RiceHOU17.117.5MODERATEMEDIUM
TEJuwan JohnsonTB9.710.0MODERATEMEDIUM
FLEXJameson WilliamsDAL16.918.0MODERATEMEDIUM
KJason MyersATL8.310.0MODERATELOW
D/STRams D/STARI6.88.0MODERATEMEDIUM

Lineup Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love - Brissett QB9 ECR vs Love QB14. Love has severe weather (27F, 21mph wind, snow). Brissett in dome-like SoFi, high game total (47.5).

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Omarion Hampton - J.Williams already scored 17.3 Thursday. Hampton IR return with 55% bust probability, split role, tough PHI defense.

XGBoost Boom/Bust Analysis

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Jason MyersK8.310.0MODERATE44.8%34.9%20.3%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR---0.0OUT36.7%43.8%19.5%
Rashee RiceWR17.117.5MODERATE31.1%37.5%31.4%
Jordan LoveQB17.616.5MODERATE29.7%48.6%21.6%
Evan EngramTE8.16.0BUST25.3%49.2%25.5%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.710.0MODERATE23.7%47.6%28.6%
Jacoby BrissettQB15.318.0BOOM22.6%45.2%32.3%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.69.5MODERATE16.3%47.1%36.6%
Omarion HamptonRB12.110.0MODERATE13.7%31.1%55.2%
Emanuel WilsonRB6.14.0BUST13.3%37.0%49.7%
Rams D/STD/ST6.88.0MODERATE12.7%30.0%57.4%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.918.0MODERATE11.0%65.9%23.1%
Jameson WilliamsWR16.918.0MODERATE10.7%38.1%51.2%
Keenan AllenWR10.58.0BUST10.4%36.0%53.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR---0.0BYE9.6%34.0%56.4%
Bucky IrvingRB16.418.0BOOM9.0%37.1%53.9%
Hunter HenryTE---0.0BYE7.9%31.8%60.3%

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (8th vs QB - tough). GB -6.5 (44.5 total). SEVERE WEATHER: 27F, 21mph wind, snow showers, -15F wind chill. Cold favors run game. Adjusting to 16.5 (lower MODERATE) for weather risk. Within MODERATE [9.1-24.1].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)


Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: XGB: 22% boom, 35% bust. vs LAR (10th vs QB). High game total (47.0). MC shows 70% BOOM mode! ARI +8 underdog = passing volume. LLM AGREES with MC BOOM selection despite XGB moderate signal. 18.0 in BOOM range [16.5-27.5].

Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 10 | ECR: 8

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%

XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)


Bucky Irving (TB vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 18.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 61% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 54% bust. OVERRIDE XGB: Saints allow 5th most rush yds, gashed by Achane 186. Irving 81 yds + TD Week 13 return, full practice Thursday. TB -8.5 = positive game script. Selecting BOOM mode. 18.0 within range [16.3, 31.3].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 28 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Tyjae Spears (TEN vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 19% boom, 34% bust. vs CLE (8th vs RB - TOUGH). Low game total (33.5) = limited scoring. TEN +4.5 underdog = negative game script risk. MC MODERATE [5.3-13.3]. MODERATE 9.5 accounts for committee split with Pollard. Ceiling capped.

Context: O/U: 33.5 | Def Rank: 9

MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)


Omarion Hampton (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST [0-8], 40% MOD [5-17], 31% BOOM [15-30]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. UPGRADED: Full practice Friday (was limited), no non-contact jersey, blue jersey, red-zone walkthrough. Jalen Carter (PHI DL) OUT - matchup upgrade. Still first game back from 7-week ankle fracture. Split role with Vidal expected. Raising to 10.0 (mid-MODERATE) given practice upgrade. Injury risk remains but outlook improved.

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 25

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)


Emanuel Wilson (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)


Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 34% BUST, 43% MOD, 22% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 23% bust. WR1 consensus (ECR #1). @ATL (15th vs WR). SEA -7 = positive script. WEATHER: 54F, 27mph gusts, heavy rain (90%). Wind/rain affect deep passing but short/intermediate routes fine. Props at 94 rec yds. Adjusting to 18.0 for weather. Within MODERATE [12.6-24.6].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 1

MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)


Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)

Reasoning: Panthers bye Week 14. No projection.

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)


Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. On IR. No return timeline.

Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)


Rashee Rice (KC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 17.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 34% boom, 31% bust - VOLATILE. vs HOU (14th vs WR). KC -4.5 favorite. MC shows 47% BOOM probability but XGB more conservative. Selecting MODERATE mode [10.6-21.4] due to HOU decent secondary. 17.5 balanced projection.

Context: O/U: 41.5 | Def Rank: 14 | ECR: 3

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%

XGB (This Week): Boom 31% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)


Jameson Williams (DET vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: GAME COMPLETED (Thursday). Actual: 17.3 pts. Preserved pre-game projection (18.0 MODERATE).

Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16

MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)


Keenan Allen (LAC vs PHI)

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)


Evan Engram (DEN vs LV)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.

Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)


Juwan Johnson (NO vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: XGB: 26% boom, 30% bust. @TB (18th vs TE). NO +8.5 underdog = passing volume for garbage time. MC BOOM mode at 36%! But selecting MODERATE [5.7-12.3] due to low team total (17.0 implied). 10.0 in MODERATE range.

Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 18 | ECR: 6

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)


Hunter Henry (NE vs BYE)

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BYE)

Reasoning: Patriots bye Week 14. No projection.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)


Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 30% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 30% boom, 22% bust. vs CHI (8th vs QB - tough). GB -6.5 (44.5 total). SEVERE WEATHER: 27F, 21mph wind, snow showers, -15F wind chill. Cold favors run game. Adjusting to 16.5 (lower MODERATE) for weather risk. Within MODERATE [9.1-24.1].


Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 56%

Notes: Panthers bye Week 14. No projection.


Evan Engram (TE) - DEN vs LV

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%

Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.


Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs LAR

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): OUT: 100%

XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%

Notes: OUT - appendicitis surgery Nov 10. On IR. No return timeline.


Omarion Hampton (RB) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 29% BUST [0-8], 40% MOD [5-17], 31% BOOM [15-30]. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. UPGRADED: Full practice Friday (was limited), no non-contact jersey, blue jersey, red-zone walkthrough. Jalen Carter (PHI DL) OUT - matchup upgrade. Still first game back from 7-week ankle fracture. Split role with Vidal expected. Raising to 10.0 (mid-MODERATE) given practice upgrade. Injury risk remains but outlook improved.


Emanuel Wilson (RB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 4.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%

Notes: MC: 49% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 46% bust. Backup to Josh Jacobs with limited touches. Cold weather game. Selecting BUST mode. 4.0 within BUST range [-1.4, 6.1].


Keenan Allen (WR) - LAC vs PHI

Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54%

Notes: MC: 63% BUST (historical). XGB: 11% boom, 56% bust. PHI allows 5th-fewest pts to WRs. Herbert hand injury limits deep shots. Selecting BUST mode. 8.0 within BUST range [3.2, 10.7].


Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BYE

Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 60%

Notes: Patriots bye Week 14. No projection.


High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Patrick Mahomes QB 17.9 20.1 MODERATE 48% 37% 16% HIGH
Malik Washington WR 8.4 8.2 MODERATE 27% 46% 27% MEDIUM
DJ Moore WR 9.1 11.9 MODERATE 23% 52% 25% MEDIUM
Keon Coleman WR 6.7 9.2 MODERATE 15% 55% 30% LOW
Ray Davis RB 0.0 0.0 BUST 13% 36% 51% LOW
Ollie Gordon II RB 3.2 7.8 BUST 12% 34% 54% LOW
Vikings D/ST D/ST 5.2 6.3 MODERATE 12% 42% 46% LOW
Nick Chubb RB 5.3 7.5 BUST 11% 27% 62% LOW
Brandon Aubrey K 8.9 8.9 BUST 11% 26% 63% LOW
Dalton Kincaid TE 10.0 9.6 BUST 10% 34% 57% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)

Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)

Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
J.K. Dobbins RB 11.8 42% 20% 0.0%
Michael Badgley K 8.0 33% 42% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 9.3 32% 22% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 9.8 28% 31% 0.0%
Tyler Allgeier RB 0.0 28% 33% 0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. TE 8.6 28% 26% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.1 27% 39% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.8 27% 26% 0.0%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 5.9 26% 31% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 7.2 22% 43% 0.0%
Trey Benson RB 8.2 21% 37% 0.0%
Aaron Rodgers QB 15.3 19% 50% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 0.0 19% 43% 0.0%
Matthew Golden WR 8.6 18% 46% 0.0%
Evan McPherson K 8.2 17% 53% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Aaron Rodgers 15.3 BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% 19% 50%
Kyler Murray 17.2 BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% 14% 45%
Justin Fields 16.4 BUST:39%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 14% 49%
Sam Darnold 15.4 BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% 13% 41%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 11.8 BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% 42% 20%
Tyler Allgeier 0.0 BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% 28% 33%
Isiah Pacheco 8.8 BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% 27% 26%
Trey Benson 8.2 BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% 21% 37%
Devin Neal 8.7 BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% 15% 47%
Chuba Hubbard 11.0 BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% 14% 49%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.9 BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% 9% 58%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Garrett Wilson 14.1 BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% 27% 39%
Matthew Golden 8.6 BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% 18% 46%
Cooper Kupp 10.5 BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% 12% 58%
Tre Tucker 9.9 BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% 9% 42%
Jayden Reed 11.6 BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% 0% 0%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Evan Engram 9.3 BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% 32% 22%
Harold Fannin Jr. 8.6 BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% 28% 26%
Colston Loveland 9.2 BUST:44%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:18% 8% 56%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Michael Badgley 8.0 33% 42%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 9.8 28% 31%
Evan McPherson 8.2 17% 53%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 5.9 26% 31%
Patriots D/ST 7.2 22% 43%
Commanders D/ST 0.0 19% 43%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 14 | Generated: 2025-12-05 19:16

Matchup Summary

83.2%

Win Probability

+29.1
Expected Margin
126.3
My Team (LLM Proj)
89.6
Opponent (Proj)
30.2
Margin Std Dev
118.7
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -9.7 pts | Median: +29.4 pts | Ceiling: +67.4 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
TE Dalton Kincaid QUESTIONABLE 12.2 Sam LaPorta 11.9

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 89.6 83.2% +29.2
All injured starters out 15.0% 91.4 82.7% +27.5

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB MED 18.0 4.4-28.1 ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 12% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB HIGH 18.0 4.3-24.3 ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 12% Bucky Irving
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 9.5 2.2-20.1 ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 26% Tyjae Spears
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR HIGH 18.0 5.7-30.3 ↑15+: 59% | ↓5-: 6% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 17.5 7.1-28.1 ↑15+: 61% | ↓5-: 3% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 17.3 4.1-25.7 ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 10.0 2.5-17.2 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 25% Juwan Johnson
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.0 0.0-17.4 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 43% Rams D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 10.0 4.6-16.5 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 16.5 6.4-28.2 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 10.0 2.5-24.0 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 23% Omarion Hampton
Emanuel Wilson RB HIGH 4.0 0.5-20.6 ↑15+: 20% | ↓5-: 44% Emanuel Wilson
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 0.0 5.0-26.1 ↑15+: 30% | ↓5-: 10% Tetairoa McMillan
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR LOW 0.0 0.0-0.0 ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% Marvin Harrison Jr.
Keenan Allen WR HIGH 8.0 4.5-25.9 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 15% Keenan Allen
Hunter Henry TE HIGH 0.0 3.4-22.0 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% Hunter Henry

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Patrick Mahomes QB MED 20.2 10.0-31.4 ↑15+: 69% | ↓5-: 0% Patrick Mahomes
Nick Chubb RB HIGH 7.5 1.6-15.8 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 42% Nick Chubb
Ollie Gordon II RB HIGH 7.7 0.4-17.2 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% Ollie Gordon II
DJ Moore WR HIGH 11.8 4.2-23.0 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 18% DJ Moore
Keon Coleman WR HIGH 9.2 2.6-18.3 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% Keon Coleman
Malik Washington WR HIGH 8.3 2.1-15.7 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% Malik Washington
Dalton Kincaid TE HIGH 9.6 2.7-18.4 ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 28% Dalton Kincaid
Vikings D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.3 0.0-21.1 ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 59% Vikings D/ST
Brandon Aubrey K HIGH 9.0 3.4-16.6 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 22% Brandon Aubrey

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
J.J. McCarthy QB HIGH 14.9 3.5-26.8 ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 17% J.J. McCarthy
Christian McCaffrey RB MED 22.3 11.5-35.4 ↑15+: 73% | ↓5-: 0% Christian McCaffrey
Rhamondre Stevenson RB HIGH 10.3 2.1-20.9 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 31% Rhamondre Stevenson
Ray Davis RB HIGH 6.8 0.2-15.9 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 49% Ray Davis
Sam LaPorta TE HIGH 11.4 3.6-19.9 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 20% Sam LaPorta
Packers D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.8 0.0-16.0 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 46% Packers D/ST
Chris Boswell K HIGH 8.4 1.9-15.6 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 31% Chris Boswell

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 22% @ 23.8 61% @ 14.0 17% @ 4.3 14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 23% @ 29.4 43% @ 18.6 34% @ 7.2 17.1
Rashee Rice WR 47% @ 24.2 29% @ 15.7 25% @ 7.9 17.8
Tyjae Spears RB 18% @ 20.4 61% @ 8.9 20% @ 3.0 9.8
Jason Myers K 22% @ 15.9 44% @ 11.2 34% @ 5.8 10.3
Juwan Johnson TE 36% @ 14.7 35% @ 9.2 28% @ 3.6 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 26% @ 24.0 41% @ 15.2 33% @ 5.6 14.4
Jacoby Brissett QB 70% @ 21.7 5% @ 14.8 24% @ 6.0 17.5
Rams D/ST D/ST 23% @ 16.3 40% @ 8.0 37% @ 1.3 7.5

Waiver Wire Notes

No urgent waiver moves needed. If Hampton struggles Monday, consider Kimani Vidal if available. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) emerging as TE streamer with 27.5% XGBoost boom.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_vs_espn_scatter_comparison.png llm_weekly_winners.png llm_cumulative_improvement.png llm_position_advantage.png llm_confidence_correlation.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 14 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.